Sunday, March 7, 2010

Armenian Genocide

The US House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs passed 23-22 the resolution to define the atrocities committed against the Armenians in 1915 as genocide. Not a very big deal when you consider this didn't enter them into an exclusive club.

Countries officially recognizing the Genocide:

Argentina
Armenia
Belgium
Canada
Chile
Cyprus
France
Germany
Greece
Italy
Lithuania
Lebanon
Netherlands
Poland
Russia
Slovakia
Sweden
Switzerland
Uruguay
Vatican City
Venezuela

Not to mention 43 of the 50 US states recognize the genocide. There is also a smattering of international organizations, including the Turkish Human Rights Association, which recognize the atrocities as such. So why does this matter to the Turkish government so much? Why did they pull their ambassador back to Ankara to discuss matters further? It's a political tactician's dream, that's why.

A brief summary of why Turkey is awesome:

Turkey is probably the US government's most crucial ally in the Middle East. They are the only predominantly Muslim nation in NATO. They have the second largest military in NATO. They serve as a counter-weight to the damaging effects our friendship with Israel has in the hearts and minds of inhabitants of the region. We have one military base in Turkey, with the prospects of a second now dwindling.

Thus far, they have also been the most impressive in defying the US in order to retain their status in the Middle East. This is most surprising because, to most observers, they seem to need friendship with the US as much as the US needs friendship with Turkey. So, coming back to the question, "Why would Turkey be so upset?" Remember how I said that it was a political tactician's dream? Enter Azerbaijan and the Armenian land seizure of 1993.

Recent talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the return of a Nagorno-Karabakh, a province seized by Armenia in 1993, have come to a stand-still. So, think of this as the equivalent of Alsace-Lorraine for those of you who know your popular European history. It's a disputed piece of territory that both entities lay claim to. The Armenians currently control it, and you know what they say about possession and how it relates to the law.

So, Turkey has to play the bad-ass card once again and throw a fit about US resolutions. Not that it's anything new, see 2007 under G Dub. Turkey has been a stolid supporter of its ethnic brothers in Azerbaijan. This current event serves them well to stone-wall the normalization process and apply pressure on Armenia to concede to demands already on the table. Will the gambit pay off? Who knows?

Did the US know what it was doing when it decided to pass this resolution? In the venerable words of Alaska's own, "You betcha!" The US probably decided to play this as a gift to Turkey in order to highlight the situation in Armenia/Azerbaijan/Turkey.

We can't afford to lose Turkey, or Azerbaijan, as an ally. So we would dare not do something this dire to upset them. So, we must have done it so they could stand against us and show their strength.

Also, the difficulty the ruling in party in Turkey is having comes up, but I don't think that is as relevant since the Turkish military is becoming more and more democratic. The Turkish military, by the way, being the force that has truly created modern Turkey.

Feel free to post questions. Or just welcome me back after my brief hiatus!

Peace!

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