Saturday, July 11, 2009

Honduras

Why is it that the world has rallied behind Zelaya?

Because he was the democratically elected leader and technically what happened could be construed as a military coup by those people around the world, by world "leaders" mind you who probably couldn't even find Honduras on a map, let alone tell you anything about it's history.

Media outlets the world over keep using rhetoric to make the event sound like a military coup. Here's a question though: Doesn't the military need to take over and keep power for it to really be a military coup? This seems more like a method of maintaining constitutional integrity and removing from power and ineffective and unloved leader.

Micheletti isn't a new dictator. He just happened to be the next in line, and has thus far found approval from every branch of government and the military. There is also an understanding that he will not stand for election come January. He doesn't sound like a military dictator in the sense of past favorites like Gaddafi or Pinochet.

Then there is the popular notion that the overthrow was committed illegally. This seems difficult to prove for some. The Supreme Court of Honduras issued an order for the military to remove Zelaya from office. The National Congress duly swore in Micheletti after Zelaya was removed to Costa Rica (with no physical harm coming to the man.) So, we have the Supreme Court issuing an order to remove a dangerous leader from power... and somehow this is illegal?

It's not like they removed Zelaya because he was a populist and was attempting to turn the country into a dictatorship. He wasn't even popular with an estimated 30% approval rating. He was however attempting to thwart legal channels. A popular referendum is no way to change a constitution. There are too many things that can go wrong with them, for example- fraud, ignorance of the electorate, fraud and of course the old time favorite for democracies- fraud.

Now, we have an argument from some that is sound. They say that Zelaya should have been tried in court instead of being forcibly removed from office. That sounds great on the surface, but with elections coming up in January the remainder of his term would have been bogged down in legal battles. With the forcible removal, the country can continue not wasting a lot of congressional time trying to wrap their minds around the legality of Zelaya's proposal.

It was a bad idea to try and change the constitution. It was a bad idea to forcibly remove Zelaya from power. It would be a terrible idea to allow him back as president. However, the EU and President Obama are trying to get him put back into power. They are ignoring the mood of the Honduran people- most of whom say that while it was probably wrong to remove Zelaya, bringing him back would cause turmoil and it shouldn't happen.

On the sidelines we also have Hugo Chavez. He is rooting for the return of his pal Zelaya. There is even an underlying threat of military intervention. How would Obama react to that? Mr Chavez has already denounced the weak response by the US. That's a leader I can get behind. With one face he is saying the US needs to leave Latin America alone, with the other face he denounces them for not doing more. Ah Chavez, you make me glad I live in America.

But, with the help of Costa Rican President Oscar Arias, it seems that there might be an end in sight. Arias is an amazing leader and I truly hope that a good biography of him comes out in the near future, in English mind you so we can issue it to students and tell them, "This guy is the kind of guy we should respect." He managed a difficult situation but it seems Zelaya will be allowed back into Honduras, but taken directly to the courts. So, I guess we won't avoid the disgusting legal battles after all. We will avoid Mr Chavez doing anything stupid militarily though. I hope.

Micheletti also removed the de facto Foreign Minister after he called Obama a "negrito." This is a derogatory term translated roughly as "little black man." In case we couldn't figure that out.

So, the changes that took place will stand, but Zelaya gets to be put on trial. He still won't be president, Micheletti will retain that position. But now Zelaya has the opportunity to be imprisoned. I would much prefer that than to having the world as my oyster.

Honduras is still struggling to overcome a crippling drug-gang epidemic and I think the populace will show that they want a strong leader in office the next go-round. So, keep your eyes on Honduras and look for the elections in January, because until then its just going to be one ridiculous legal accusation after another.

Peace.

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