Israeli Elections and the Future of the Peace Process

The elections are almost finished and the final votes are soon to be tallied from Israeli service personnel. There is little doubt though that Likud has won the most seats and Chairman Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to lure Kadima into a coalition. Kadima leader Tzipi Livni has thus far refused to join any coalition that would be of a far-right religious bent. Netanyahu is most likely to form just such a coalition. What would this type of government lead to in regards to peace with Palestinians and the prevention of war with Iran, along with US-Israeli relations?

That can wait. First, if Netanyahu doesn't get Kadima to join up, where does that leave Livni? She has said that she is still trying to form a coalition under her lead. At the same time she has stated that she will not give in to exorbitant demands in order to form a coalition. She has one very strong argument in regards to her leading the country.

"I can also put together a coalition that is united around the peace process. Netanyahu doesn't want that, and couldn't do it even if he did, with his right wing partners." -Livni

What she says seems true enough. It is doubtful that Netanyahu would do much for the peace process. He might also worsen relations with Iran. This at a time when US President Obama has made moves to improve relations with Iran. However, Netanyahu will be able to form a ruling coalition, and it seems unlikely that Kadima can stand against him for long. He is offering some top spots to leaders of some of the smaller parties. He is also expected to offer Livni the top position in foreign affairs and perhaps the defense position to fellow opposition member Mofaz.

So, if Livni accepts the post, she would be in a strong position with regards to foreign policy. How strong, and how far she would be allowed to carry her agenda remains to be seen. She could push a more accepting peace process, but I imagine that will be greatly hampered by Netanyahu and his probable coalition. The only thing we can do now is to wait and see, and hope for the best for the country of Israel.



Peace

Haaretz articles- Breakdown of Coalition Possibilities, Final Tally