Can the Balkans serve as view toward Europe's Future?

Southeast European Times article

The recent row between Gazprom and Ukraine has led to a debilitating lack of oil in the Balkans. It has taken on many forms, factories shutting down, schools closing, radiators in housing complexes turning off and so on. 96% of Bulgaria's oil comes from Russia. So far, they have been the worst hit. The state is shutting down without the lifeblood that pours through Ukraine from Russia. Russia supplies 25% of Europe's gas, 80% of which flows through Ukraine.

The current conflict is somewhat of an annual fixture in Eastern Europe. However, 2008 was a very complex year for the region. The Balkans gained a new state in Kosovo, new advances (and setbacks) in the FYROM name debate, riots in Greece, Bulgarian police strikes, and now this. The burgeoning states of this region are struggling to conform to the laws of the EU in order to brighten their national futures, and a simple conflict between Russia and a former satellite are turning it all to dust. Can this be a harbinger of Western Europe's future?

The oil and natural gas that come out of Russia are very crucial to the sustainability of Western Europe's standard of living. What happens if the cordial relations with Russia fall apart? People in Germany, France and other countries face a set of dire consequences. If they lose a crucial source of heating oil, who suffers? France had better not let it's society's outer fringes suffer again, lest they ignite a new set of rioting. Germany's industrial core requires vast amounts of fuel to sustain itself, despite what they have accomplished with alternative fuels. Switzerland of course derives all of it's power from hot chocolate, so they have no worries.

This is a Europe only twenty-some years removed from the most devastating non-war war humans have ever experienced. Their sworn enemies were Russia, and now they rely on that country for a large portion of their fuel. What if the pipeline through Belarus is stopped up? There goes most of Russia's oil and natural gas. Will we see BMW factories forced to close, as we have seen factories in Macedonia close? Will there be statements from the leaders of these nations stating that they only have ten days of reserve fuel, as we have seen in the Balkans?

I have long believed that the most effective barometer for Europe exists in the Balkans. Despite its reputation in the US, it serves as an insight to all of Europe's problems. There are ethnic tensions, economic woes and a precarious reliance on foreign fuels. What can we learn from the situation in the Balkans?

Reliance on foreign fuels can be debilitating. It's a lesson that should be learned by Europe and the US in kind. The world would change suddenly if the US lost its friendship with oil producers. We would no longer be concerned with our children's international educational standings, but concerned with heating their schools. The fear of our national unemployment rate hitting double digits would be but a trifle if we had no fuel for any of out factories, the unemployment rate would skyrocket.

It's a doomsday scenario that we can see being played out in the Balkans, and hopefully, we sit up and listen this time.